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BOPD (barrels of oil per day): What inferences as to sustainability, if any, should or may be drawn?

Does a cited anticipated rate of, say, 3-5 bopd , or 10-15 bopd, when compared to the well's historical rates, imply anything about how long the well may last? Is there some correlation between charted bopd rates and longevity? Or is it all a crap shoot? Where does one go to get the elucidating information?
A $30,000 cost, with a $30,000 anticipated annual income, certainly seems attractive, provided the well lasts 3-5 years, and not 3-5 months (or weeks)!
I understand the depletion allowance is an important factor to profitability, but is it only a worthwhile chance for a highly taxed rich man to take with easily risked dollars, or can a cautious, low tax bracket guy, responsibly try too?

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There are so many factors which can go into estimating what a well might produce over its life and how long that life will be. You can use historical performance to estimate ultimate recoveries especially if a good trend is established. I am a petroleum engineer who has worked in reservoir engineering for over twenty years. If I knew more about the factors involved I could probably help you. If you want more information please email me at Thanks, Keith

Sep 20, 2010